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Cuba: Waiting for Change
Cristina Warren
Since Fidel Castro “temporarily” turned over power in 2006 to his younger brother, Raúl, due to illness, the aging Cuban leader has essentially disappeared from public view, making only occasional appearances on edited videos and photos. Yet, despite his absence from the public realm, Fidel has taken pains to show that he remains active and alert, publishing articles regularly and holding private meetings with foreign dignitaries such as Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua, Evo Morales of Bolivia, and most recently, Lula da Silva of Brazil, as well as officials from China, Vietnam and Angola.
While the future of Fidel Castro remains unclear, there are signs that he may be trying to prepare Cubans for his ultimate retirement. In a recent article, he acknowledged his growing limitations, saying that he devotes his time to writing because he lacks the physical ability to talk to Cubans directly. “I do what I can: I write,” he said. “This constitutes a new experience for me. Speaking is not the same as writing. Now that I have more time to keep myself informed and to reflect on what I see, I barely have enough time to write.” A statement, read on state television at his request this past December, said that his “fundamental duty is not to cling to public offices, still less to obstruct the advance of younger people, but to contribute experience and ideas.” This prompted speculation that he may soon step down permanently from Cuba’s presidency.
Such a development would certainly be welcome news to many people both on and off the island who, after nearly 50 years of communist rule under Fidel Castro, are anxiously hoping for the start of a new era when Castro no longer dominates Cuban politics and the country can begin a process of badly needed reforms. Raúl Castro’s acknowledgment in his speech of July 26 — the official anniversary of the start of the revolution — that the economy needed “structural and conceptual changes” in order to raise productivity, as well as his call for a national debate on what to do, suggests that Cuba’s acting president is aware of the popular frustration regarding the shortages and hardships faced by Cubans. It also indicates an awareness that many of the island’s problems are systemic, rather than due primarily to the American economic embargo or “imperialism,” as Fidel has always insisted.
Presumably, Raúl is also aware of the possible destabilizing effects if the government is not seen as trying to improve matters. While so far he has shown reluctance to undertake visible reforms, Raúl’s government keeps sending signals of limited liberalization, including a number of measures to encourage people to express their societal frustrations. Beyond the insinuation of possible economic reform in the near future, ensuing party and work-place meetings have been held to debate the island’s problems, raising a long list of complaints including insufficient salaries, obstacles for legal micro-businesses, state tutelage over agrarian cooperatives, foreigner-only areas restricted to Cubans, and even deficiencies in the health and education systems.
In addition, Juventud Rebelde, a newspaper intended for Cuban youth, started publishing investigative stories on a range of ills plaguing the country. “The Lives of Others,” an Oscar-winning movie about the amorality of communist East Germany’s repressive secret services, was included in Havana’s film festival in December. In January, Cuban television aired a 2003 documentary on Havana’s Industriales baseball team – a film that had been held back from the public for almost five years because it included interviews with players who later defected. While Cuba continues its harsh repression of the country’s human rights and dissident groups, the government announced that the country would eventually sign the UN covenants on civil and political rights and on economic, social and cultural rights, which it steadfastly has refused to do in the past.
Time will tell if Raúl’s will to reform is sincere. A key indicator will be the extent to which Fidel Castro will continue to influence policy (and obstruct meaningful reforms), which so far remains unclear. This is, however, likely to be somewhat clarified over the next three months. In an indication that it is not yet time to count Fidel Castro out of Cuban politics, he was re-elected on January 20 to the National Assembly (in legislative elections in which candidates ran unopposed), where he must hold a seat to be eligible to stay on as chief of the island’s governing body, the Council of State. The assembly will hold its first session on February 24, during which it will approve the executive Council of State, and confirm whether the elder Castro will continue as Cuba’s head of state or be formally succeeded by his brother, or perhaps even by a younger leader. Whatever the outcome, hopefully Cuba will move out of its political limbo over the coming months.
Cristina Warren is the director of FOCAL’s Research Forum on Cuba.